The Overproduction Problem – Mathematical Optimization of Production Levels in a Confectionery Plant — Przegląd piekarski i cukierniczy 2021-6

The article addresses the problem of overproduction in a confectionery business and aims to determine the optimal production level to maximize profit while minimizing waste. The author shows that this issue belongs to the field of operations research, combining probability methods and optimization techniques.

In the technical part, a mathematical model is presented based on historical sales data. The analysis uses probability distributions of demand, expected value calculations, and profit functions that combine revenue and losses from unsold products. The model applies decision theory and statistical calculations to evaluate different production scenarios and select the optimal one .

As a result, the optimal production level was determined (e.g. 57 units), which maximizes expected profit under uncertainty. The article demonstrates that quantitative methods in operations research, including probability-based optimization, support better production planning and reduce the risk of losses.

Publication link: https://sigma-not.pl/zeszyt-6702-przeglad-piekarski-i-cukierniczy-2021-6.html